Why "Be Patient" Is the Worst Trading Advice You Will Ever Write

Open your trading journal. Look at last month's notes.

You will find entries like these:

• -"Don't chase breakouts."
• -"Need to size down on revenge trades."
• -"Be more disciplined."
• -"Should have held the winner longer."

Now ask yourself: did any of those notes change your behavior the next day?

For most traders, the answer is no. Not because the observations are wrong. They are correct. But they are not operational. They describe what happened without specifying the conditions under which it matters.

The Problem with Generic Lessons

"Be patient" sounds wise after the fact. But when you are watching ES at 9:37 ET and price is breaking the opening range on thin volume, "be patient" does not tell you anything.

Patient for how long? Under what conditions? Until what signal?

Generic advice has three problems:

It carries no context. "Don't chase" does not specify which moves to avoid, at what price, or under what conditions. It applies to everything and nothing.

It cannot be tested. If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it. "Be more disciplined" has no success criteria.

It evaporates under pressure. Your pre-frontal cortex knows the lesson. Your amygdala does not care. When the chart is moving, feelings override generic advice every time.

The Fix: Conditional Rules

The alternative is a conditional rule: a specific IF/THEN statement with defined triggers and actions.

Here is what the conversion looks like:

Bad: "Don't chase breakouts."

Good: "If ES breaks opening range before 9:45 ET on volume below 15k, wait for retest acceptance before entering."

Bad: "Be patient."

Good: "If gap-up opens above prior day high and fades to VWAP in first 20 minutes, only enter long after 5-minute hold above VWAP."

Bad: "Cut losses faster."

Good: "If short thesis relies on rejection at a key level, exit immediately if price closes above that level on a 5-minute candle."

The difference: the second version in each pair can be tested. You can track how many times the condition appeared, how many times the action worked, and calculate a win rate.

What Makes a Good Conditional Rule

Every useful rule has three components:

A specific trigger. Not "when the market is trending" but "when ES gaps between 0.5% and 1.0% and price fades to VWAP within the first 20 minutes." Include price levels, time windows, and market context.

A specific action. Not "wait for confirmation" but "wait for two consecutive 1-minute closes above VWAP before entering long." Include what to do, where to do it, and how to manage risk.

A defined invalidation. Not "if it doesn't work, get out" but "exit immediately if price closes below the reclaim candle low on a 5-minute bar." This is what protects you when the pattern fails.

How to Start

After your next session, take one observation from your review and convert it:

1. 1.Write the observation: "Gap faded to VWAP and bounced."
2. 2.Add conditions: What was the gap size? How fast did it fade? What confirmed the bounce?
3. 3.Write the IF/THEN: "IF gap between 0.6% and 1.0% AND price fades to VWAP within 20 minutes AND VWAP holds for 5 minutes, THEN enter long with stop 5 ticks below VWAP."
4. 4.Track it. Next time the condition appears, note whether the rule would have worked.

After 20 occurrences, you have data. If the win rate is above 60%, you have a rule worth keeping. If it is below 40%, refine or discard.

This is how vague lessons become compound edge. One rule at a time. One review at a time.